Logical Fallacy, Sesat Pikir yang Membawa Kerusakan
Albert Einstein pernah mengatakan bahwa akal sehat adalah kumpulan prasangka yang diperoleh hingga usia 18 tahun. Akal ini mengandung apa yang disebut kesalahan logika bodoh yang tertanam dalam otak manusia dari generasi ke generasi.
Kesalahan inilah yang disebut sebagai logical fallacy atau sesat pikir. Sesat pikir adalah kesalahan argumen atau retorika yang menyebabkan validitasnya diragukan atau bahkan salah besar. Pola berpikir yang salah inilah yang membawa kerusakan pada masyarakat dan dunia.
#1. Historian’s Falacy
Pernah mengetahui bahwa remaja yang menyukai balapan liar. Mengendarai motor dengan kecepatan tinggi di jalan raya, menggunakan perangkat keamanan yang minim, kondisi jalan yang tidak bisa diprediksi, itulah balap liar.
Balap liar sedang berlangsung. (c) TribunNews.
Pembalap liar di kalangannya disebut sebagai pemberani dan keren. Tetapi kemudian yang mereka ingat hanyalah terbangun di rumah sakit akibat kecelakaan. Itupun kalo bangun, tidak langsung ke akhirat. Kita beri selamat kepada mereka yang tertipu dengan cara berpikir mereka. 🙂
Mereka yang melakukan balap liar bukan tidak pernah mendengar kasus kecelakaan karena balap liar. Mereka juga bukan tidak tahu bahwa resiko kegiatan itu adalah kematian. Tetapi mayoritas mereka berpikir bahwa kesalahan yang sama tidak akan dilakukan. Padahal jika situasi yang dihadapi adalah sama, kemungkinannya adalah sama.
George Santayana pada tahun 1905 pernah mengatakan, “mereka yang tidak mengingat masa lalu, memiliki kecenderungan mengulanginya”. Dan ternyata itu benar, selama 100 tahun lebih mereka melupakan kata-kata Santayana ini dan terus saja mengulangi kesalahan yang sama yang sudah dilakukan oleh orang lain.
#2. Appeal to Probability
Otak kita sangat bodoh jika mengkalkulasi probabilitas dan kemungkinan. Maka dari itu pada akhirnya membuat otak menyederhanakan permasalahan dengan menggunakan ide semu bahwa “jika sesuatu bisa terjadi, pasti akan terjadi.” Kita berpikir seperti itu tanpa mengetahui apa sebenarnya arti dari probabilitas itu.
Probabilitas adalah kejadian antara pasti dan tidak mungkin.
Probabilitas adalah suatu keadaan antara terjadi dan tidak terjadi. Misalnya kemungkinan untuk seorang sarjana Teknik Informatika mendapatkan pekerjaan adalah sebuah probabilitas. Namun banyak lulusan SMU yang berbondong-bondong masuk ke jurusan tersebut, padahal lapangan pekerjaannya juga tidak banyak.
Lihat juga bagaimana reaksi masyarakat saat mendengar berita bahwa asteroid MUNGKIN menabrak bumi dalam 10 juta tahun lagi. Semua orang langsung saja melongok ke langit, mencari-cari asteroid, siapa tahu ada yang jatuh. Padahal itu baru MUNGKIN terjadi dan jika terjadi, itu 10 juta tahun lagi dimana tak ada satupun dari kita yang menyaksikan itu terjadi.
Contoh lainnya adalah judi. Seringkali orang berpikir, “tidak ada salahnya dicoba karena pasti akan ada pemenang dan itu bisa saja saya”. Karena kesalahan logika inilah judi tumbuh subur di masyarakat. Ini adalah cara yang paling cerdik untuk membuat orang memberikan uang mereka. Setiap kali anda membeli kupon togel, mengikuti undian berhadiah atau mendaftar sebagai anggota MLM, maka anda masuk dalam jebakan logika sesat ini.
#3. Regression Falacy
Manusia secara umum memang diprogram untuk melihat suatu pola. Melihat hubungan diantara beberapa stimulus adalah bagian dari bagaimana orang menjalani hidup di lingkungan yang komplek. Pada masa lalu, ini membuat kita dapat menemukan makanan dengan berburu dan meramu. Pada masa kini, ini dapat membantu kita menghadapi orang, menyimpan informasi dalam jumlah besar dan memprediksi kemungkinan.
Kalo bawa jimat yang ini pasti bisa beli barang. 🙂
Namun jika terjadi kesalahan dalam mengenali pola, maka akan terjadi keanehan, utamanya dalam bentuk takhayul. Sebagai contoh, anda adalah seorang tenaga marketing yang setiap mengenakan baju merah, anda tidak menjual satupun produk. Sedangkan saat anda menggunakan baju warna lainnya, anda bisa mendapatkan pelanggan. Lalu anda menyimpulkan bahwa warna merah adalah warna sial anda. Itulah contoh regression fallacy.
Tiga kesalahan logika diatas dapat dijadikan bahan renungan. Siapa tahu diantara kita juga melakukan hal yang sama. Hanya Lewat pun di masa lalu juga pernah melakukan hal yang serupa. Bagaimana menurut pendapat anda?
Note: tulisan diatas adalah gabungan antara pengetahun akademik dan pengamatan lingkungan, semua sumber dapat ditemukan dengan mengetikkan nama kesalahan di Google.
Ada 123 pendapat pembaca
Dibawah ini adalah pendapat yang dikirimkan pembaca atas artikel ini. Negara Kesatuan Republik Indonesia adalah negara bebas, anda boleh menulis apa saja asal mampu mempertanggungjawabkannya. Kami menerima kritik dan saran namun tidak menerima caci maki. Hidup cuma sekali, jangan sia-siakan hanya untuk menyakiti hati orang lain.
Kirim pendapat
Disclaimer: Komentar adalah tanggapan pribadi, tidak mewakili kebijakan Hanya Lewat. Redaksi berhak menyunting atau menghapus kata-kata yang berbau narsisme, promosi, spam, pelecehan, intimidasi dan kebencian terhadap suatu golongan.
Hey there! I know this is somewhat off topic but I was wondering which blog platform are you using for this site? I’m getting fed up of WordPress because I’ve had problems with hackers and I’m looking at options for another platform. I would be fantastic if you could point me in the direction of a good platform.
Hello! I’ve been reading your site for a long time now and finally got the courage to go ahead and give you a shout out from Dallas Texas! Just wanted to say keep up the good work!
Hi there, this weekend is good designed for me, since this point in time i am reading this great informative post here at my residence.
Wоw, this articlе is nice, my sister is analyzing such
things, so I am going too teⅼl her. http://classicalmusicmp3freedownload.com/ja/index.php?title=5_Game_Penghasil_Uang_Langsung_Ke_Dana_Terkini_Tanpa_Promosi
Attractive paгt of cоntent. I just stgumbled upon ʏour web site annd in аccession capital to assert thаt І
acquiгe actually loved account ylur ᴡeblog posts.
Any way I wiⅼⅼ ƅe subscribing inn your augment and evfen I fulfillmment you
get entry to consistently rapidly. http://www.heerfamily.net/mediawiki/index.php/Quark_Play_Apk_Android_Game_Unduh_Gratisan
This site was… how do I say it? Relevant!! Finally I’ve found something that helped me. Cheers!
Hello, I think your site might be having browser compatibility issues.
When I look at your blog in Firefox, it looks fine but when opening in Internet Explorer, it has some overlapping.
I just wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other then that, great blog!
Today, I went to the beach front with my kids.
I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She
placed the shell to her ear and screamed. There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear.
She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is totally off
topic but I had to tell someone!
If you desire to take a great deal from this article
then you have to apply such strategies to your won webpage.
My brother recommended I might like this website.
He was entirely right. This post truly made my day.
You can not imagine just how much time I had spent for this info!
Thanks!
Hi, I wish for to subscribe for this blog to obtain newest updates, therefore where
can i do it please help.
I am in fact grateful to the holder of this web site who has shared this enormous piece of writing
at at this time.
Its like you read my mind! You seem to know so much about
this, like you wrote the book in it or something.
I think that you could do with a few pics to drive the message home a
bit, but instead of that, this is great blog. A fantastic read.
I will certainly be back.
Link exchange is nothing else but it is just placing the other person’s web
site link on your page at suitable place and other person will also do similar in favor of you.
Hi, I think your website might be having browser compatibility issues.
When I look at your blog site in Opera, it looks fine but when opening in Internet Explorer, it has some overlapping.
I just wanted to give you a quick heads up! Other then that,
excellent blog!
Thanks for some other informative blog. Where else may just I am getting that type of information written in such an ideal means?
I’ve a venture that I am simply now working on, and I’ve been at the
glance out for such information.
North Carolina could prove to bee a bellwether state in the 2024 election.
Also visit my website; Urbanore.Org.Uk
She also mentioned that she is looking for possibilities in human resources, talent acquisition or
professsion improvement fields.
My website Indeed Job search
Hello! Someone in my Myspace group shared this website with us so I came to give it a look. I’m definitely loving the information. I’m bookmarking and will be tweeting this to my followers! Superb blog and wonderful design.
Wow, this piece of writing is pleasant, my sister is analyzing these things, therefore I am going to inform her.
https://solo.to/kobet1
The University of Oklahoma Profession Center is a one-stop shop devoted to assisting students and alumni with career preparation.
Feel free to visit my web-site; job search Websites
https://www.outlookindia.com/plugin-play/ED8590ED8590EBB2B3-EB8F99EC9DBC-EC8694EBA3A8EC8598-EBA994EC9DB4ECA080EC82ACEC9DB4ED8AB8-EBAAA8EC9584EBB3B4EAB8B0
http://www.jungsan.co.kr/gnuboard5/bbs/board.php?bo_table=free&wr_id=36923
http://beatssng.co.kr/bbs/board.php?bo_table=free&wr_id=1478323
http://jibangjachinews.co.kr/bbs/board.php?bo_table=free&wr_id=111576
https://www.how2youtube.com/g/bbs/board.php?bo_table=free&wr_id=1695795
http://blackangel.kr/bbs/board.php?bo_table=free&wr_id=202276
You actually explained this effectively!
Review my web-site – http://hansensupply.biz/__media__/js/netsoltrademark.php?d=z9n.net%2Fsyoorz
Many thanks, Very good stuff.
Here is my webpage – http://caesarspalacejobs.com/__media__/js/netsoltrademark.php?d=www.posteezy.com%2Ffun-lucrative-entertainment-part-time-job-tips
http://xn--o01bq9wunc92bgw3a.xn--3e0b707e/bbs/board.php?bo_table=free&wr_id=764932
Very descriptive article, I loved that bit. Will there be
a part 2?
I constantly emailed this weblog post page to all my contacts, since if like to read it afterward my contacts will too.
Just desire to say your article is as astonishing. The clearness
in your post is just cool and i could assume you are an expert on this subject.
Well with your permission let me to grab your RSS feed to keep updated with forthcoming
post. Thanks a million and please carry on the gratifying work.
Thank you for the auspicious writeup. It in fact was a amusement account it.
Look advanced to far added agreeable from you!
By the way, how could we communicate?
I’d like to thank you for the efforts you have put
in writing this site. I’m hoping to see the same high-grade blog posts by you in the
future as well. In truth, your creative writing abilities has encouraged me to get my own blog now ;
)
Nice blog here! Also your web site loads up fast!
What host are you using? Can I get your affiliate link to your host?
I wish my site loaded up as fast as yours lol
I like reading an article that can make people think. Also, many
thanks for allowing for me to comment!
Hey there! This post could not be written any better! Reading through this post reminds me of my good old room mate!
He always kept chatting about this. I will forward this page to him.
Fairly certain he will have a good read. Thank you for sharing!
It’s awesome in favor of me to have a website, which is good for my experience.
thanks admin
In fact no matter if someone doesn’t be aware of
then its up to other people that they will help, so here it occurs.
Вся информация, представленная на данном сайте, носит исключительно информационный характер и предназначена для ознакомления с деятельностью онлайн-казино. Сайт не являемся оператором игр и не предоставляем услуг по организации азартных игр. meczmdwkja … https://autocadhelp.net/wp-content/uploads/aios/online-casino-mir-neogranichennyh-vozmozhnostei.html
Attractive section of content. I just stumbled
upon your weblog and in accession capital to assert that I get actually
enjoyed account your blog posts. Any way I will be
subscribing to your augment and even I achievement you access consistently rapidly.
Hi, this weekend is fastidious in support of me, since this time i am reading this wonderful informative paragraph here at my house.
http://djdent.co.kr/bbs/board.php?bo_table=free&wr_id=146062
Its like you learn my thoughts! You seem to understand a
lot about this, like you wrote the book in it or something.
I think that you just can do with some percent to force the message home a bit, but
other than that, this is excellent blog. A fantastic read.
I will certainly be back.
Hey there, You have done a great job. I’ll definitely digg it and personally recommend
to my friends. I’m confident they will be benefited from this site.
Hello there! I simply would like to offer you a huge thumbs up for
the great info you’ve got here on this post.
I’ll be coming back to your web site for more soon.
WOW just what I was looking for. Came here by searching for Hokicoy Daftar
What a material of un-ambiguity and preserveness
of valuable know-how concerning unpredicted emotions.
Fantastic goods from you, man. I’ve understand your stuff previous to and
you are just too great. I actually like what you’ve acquired here,
really like what you’re stating and the way in which you say it.
You make it enjoyable and you still take care of to keep it sensible.
I can’t wait to read much more from you. This is really a great web
site.
Thanks in favor of sharing such a good thought, piece of writing is pleasant, thats why i
have read it completely
I need to to thank you for this fantastic read!!
I absolutely enjoyed every bit of it. I have
got you saved as a favorite to check out new things you post…
I seriously love your site.. Very nice colors & theme.
Did you make this amazing site yourself? Please reply back as I’m
looking to create my own personal site and want to know
where you got this from or exactly what the theme is called.
Kudos!
Your style is really unique compared to other people I’ve read stuff from.
Many thanks for posting when you have the opportunity, Guess
I’ll just book mark this page.
Your way of telling all in this paragraph is in fact fastidious, all be capable of easily
be aware of it, Thanks a lot.
Hello great blog! Does running a blog similar to this take a massive amount work?
I have absolutely no knowledge of coding but I had been hoping to start my own blog soon. Anyway, if
you have any ideas or tips for new blog owners please share.
I know this is off topic but I simply wanted to ask. Many thanks!
Hi, i read your blog from time to time and i own a similar one and i was just wondering if you get a lot of spam comments?
If so how do you protect against it, any plugin or anything you can recommend?
I get so much lately it’s driving me insane so any support is
very much appreciated.
Its like you read my mind! You seem to know a lot about this,
like you wrote the book in it or something.
I think that you could do with a few pics to drive the message home a
bit, but instead of that, this is great blog. A fantastic read.
I’ll certainly be back.
Hi everyone, it’s my first pay a visit at this website, and article is
really fruitful for me, keep up posting such
articles.
You need to take part in a contest for one of the best websites on the
web. I most certainly will highly recommend this web site!
Hello! I could have sworn I’ve been to this website before
but after reading through some of the post I realized it’s
new to me. Anyways, I’m definitely glad I found
it and I’ll be bookmarking and checking back often!
Does your site have a contact page? I’m having a tough time locating it
but, I’d like to send you an e-mail. I’ve got some creative ideas for your blog you might be interested in hearing.
Either way, great blog and I look forward to seeing it develop over time.
Hi, this weekend is pleasant in favor of me, since this moment
i am reading this great informative post here at my house.
Wow that was unusual. I just wrote an very long comment but
after I clicked submit my comment didn’t show up. Grrrr…
well I’m not writing all that over again. Anyhow, just wanted to say excellent blog!
I am sure this piece of writing has touched all the internet viewers, its really really
nice article on building up new webpage.
I am really delighted to glance at this blog posts which contains plenty of valuable facts,
thanks for providing these statistics.
Greetings! I’ve been following your weblog for some time now and finally got the courage to go ahead and give you
a shout out from New Caney Tx! Just wanted to mention keep up the fantastic job!
Way cool! Some extremely valid points! I appreciate you writing this post plus the rest of the website is also very good.
Hello, i read your blog occasionally and i own a similar one and i was just
curious if you get a lot of spam comments? If so how do you prevent it,
any plugin or anything you can recommend?
I get so much lately it’s driving me crazy so any help
is very much appreciated.
Hello everybody, here every one is sharing these experience, so it’s good to read this weblog,
and I used to visit this weblog daily.
I enjoy what you guys are usually up too. Such clever work and coverage!
Keep up the wonderful works guys I’ve added you
guys to my blogroll.
When some one searches for his vital thing, thus he/she needs to be available that in detail, so that thing is maintained
over here.
This article will help the internet visitors for setting up new blog or even a blog from start to end.
Very energetic blog, I liked that bit. Will there be a part
2?
Have you ever thought about including a little bit more than just
your articles? I mean, what you say is fundamental
and all. But imagine if you added some great pictures or videos to give your
posts more, “pop”! Your content is excellent but with images and clips,
this website could definitely be one of the greatest in its
field. Wonderful blog!
Howdy! Someone in my Myspace group shared this site with
us so I came to check it out. I’m definitely enjoying the information. I’m bookmarking and will be tweeting this to my followers!
Excellent blog and outstanding design.
I pay a quick visit every day a few blogs and websites to read posts, except this
blog presents feature based writing.
When some one searches for his vital thing, therefore he/she wishes to be available that in detail, so that thing is maintained over here.
There’s certainly a lot to know about this issue. I love all the points you have
made.
Hi! Would you mind if I share your blog with my myspace group?
There’s a lot of people that I think would really appreciate your content.
Please let me know. Many thanks
It’s hard to come by well-informed people for this topic, however, you seem like you know what you’re talking about!
Thanks
I’m gone to convey my little brother, that he should also go to see this webpage on regular basis to get updated from hottest news update.
Its such as you read my thoughts! You seem to know so much approximately this, like you wrote the ebook in it or something.
I believe that you can do with a few percent to drive the message
home a bit, however instead of that, this is magnificent blog.
A fantastic read. I will definitely be back.
Hi, Neat post. There is a problem along with your web site in web explorer, may test
this? IE nonetheless is the marketplace chief and a large
part of other people will miss your great
writing due to this problem.
Attractive section of content. I just stumbled upon your blog and in accession capital
to assert that I get in fact enjoyed account your
blog posts. Any way I will be subscribing to your
augment and even I achievement you access consistently quickly.
If you desire to improve your knowledge only keep visiting this web site and be updated with
the hottest news update posted here.
I’m not sure where you are getting your information,
but good topic. I needs to spend some time learning
much more or understanding more. Thanks for fantastic info I was looking for this information for my mission.
Thanks for your personal marvelous posting! I seriously enjoyed reading it, you might be a great author.I will always bookmark your blog and will
often come back from now on. I want to encourage
you to continue your great writing, have a nice evening!
Hello there, I do think your blog might be having browser compatibility
problems. Whenever I take a look at your website in Safari,
it looks fine however when opening in IE, it has some
overlapping issues. I simply wanted to give you a quick heads
up! Besides that, excellent website!
Stunning story there. What happened after?
Good luck!
Hurrah, that’s what I was exploring for, what a stuff!
present here at this web site, thanks admin of this website.
Link exchange is nothing else but it is simply placing the other person’s website link on your page at suitable place and other person will also do similar in support of you.
I do not know if it’s just me or if perhaps everyone
else experiencing problems with your website. It looks like some of the text within your content are running off the
screen. Can somebody else please comment and let me know if
this is happening to them as well? This may be a problem with my web browser because
I’ve had this happen previously. Appreciate it
http://xn--6l3b27f9zdogu9qb6qm6c.com/board/bbs/board.php?bo_table=free&wr_id=16329
Spot on with this write-up, I actually believe that this site needs far more attention. I’ll probably be returning to
see more, thanks for the advice!
I’m gone to inform my little brother, that he should also go to see this website on regular basis to get updated from most up-to-date news.
Thanks very interesting blog!
magnificent post, very informative. I wonder why the opposite specialists of this
sector don’t realize this. You must continue
your writing. I’m sure, you’ve a great readers’ base already!
Pretty section of content. I just stumbled upon your blog and in accession capital to assert that I acquire in fact enjoyed
account your blog posts. Anyway I will be subscribing to your augment and even I
achievement you access consistently quickly.
When I originally commented I clicked the “Notify me when new comments are added” checkbox and
now each time a comment is added I get four e-mails with
the same comment. Is there any way you can remove
me from that service? Many thanks!
whoah this blog is wonderful i really like reading your posts.
Keep up the good work! You know, many persons are searching around for this info, you could
help them greatly.
http://www.marblusfood.co.kr/free/1786
They tried to weave in her close relationship with Marty (including a fairly tame sex scene that felt like a waste of everyone’s time), tensions with her daughter, her common coldness as a mom (I’m undecided her son was even talked about by name in the entire film), points with sexism, and her thinly veiled disappointment at settling for a job instructing at Rutgers despite unbelievable competence as a authorized mind that really ought to have earned her any variety of the jobs she sought. Occasionally, the position of sex in relation to meals is taken one step additional, bringing bonobos very near people of their habits. Although bonobos clearly do not set up the unique heterosexual bonds characteristic of our species, their behavior does fit vital components of this mannequin. 1981 to work on other primate species, together with bonobos. The reply may lie within the totally different ecological environments of bonobos and chimpanzees–such as the abundance and quality of food in the forest. The bonobos behavioral peculiarities might help us understand the function of sex and will have serious implications for models of human society. Of course these scripts would then play a task in nudes.
hi!,I really like your writing very a lot!
proportion we communicate more approximately your post on AOL?
I require an expert in this area to unravel my problem. May be that is you!
Having a look ahead to peer you.
Hey there! This post could not be written any better! Reading this post reminds me of my previous room mate! He always kept chatting about this. I will forward this write-up to him. Pretty sure he will have a good read. Thank you for sharing!
This piece of writing gives clear idea designed for the new visitors of
blogging, that truly how to do blogging.
I need to to thank you for this great read!!
I absolutely loved every little bit of it.
I have got you bookmarked to check out new stuff you post…
https://rentry.co/o3epce3b
This is a topic that’s close to my heart… Best wishes!
Exactly where are your contact details though?
Greate pieces. Keep writing such kind of info on your page.
Im really impressed by your site.
Hello there, You have performed a fantastic job. I will definitely digg it and for my part suggest to my
friends. I am sure they will be benefited from this web site.
My relatives all the time say that I am wasting my time here
at net, except I know I am getting familiarity every day by reading thes nice articles or reviews.
If you want to take a good deal from this piece of writing then you
have to apply such techniques to your won weblog.
Today, I went to the beach front with my children. I found a sea shell and gave it to my 4 year old daughter and said “You can hear the ocean if you put this to your ear.” She put the shell to her ear and screamed.
There was a hermit crab inside and it pinched her ear.
She never wants to go back! LoL I know this is entirely off topic but I had to tell someone!
Hello everybody, here every person is sharing these know-how, so it’s nice
to read this webpage, and I used to pay a quick visit this weblog daily.
Appreciate this post. Let me try it out.
Hello There. I found your blog using msn. This is a really well written article.
I will make sure to bookmark it and return to read more of your useful
info. Thanks for the post. I’ll definitely comeback.
It can be accessed via any computer, like a Mac or Computer,
using any browser.
Look at my blog post :: 카지노친구
For roughly $15.00 US per month, you ccan acquire a Singapore VPN
that will get about this block.
My web page :: 카지노사이트
The 10 Most Scariest Things About Accident Attorneys Near Me accident attorneys near me (humanlove.Stream)
выбор в игре — это интересный способ
повысить качество игры.
Особенно если вы играете на мобильном устройстве
с Android, модификации открывают перед вами широкие горизонты.
Я лично использую взломанные игры,
чтобы получать неограниченные ресурсы.
Модификации игр дают невероятную персонализированный подход, что взаимодействие с игрой гораздо увлекательнее.
Играя с твиками, я могу персонализировать свой
опыт, что добавляет виртуальные путешествия и делает
игру более эксклюзивной.
Это действительно интересно, как такие модификации
могут улучшить переживания от игры,
а при этом сохраняя использовать такие модифицированные приложения можно без особых проблем, если быть внимательным и следить
за обновлениями. Это делает каждый игровой процесс уникальным,
а возможности практически бесконечные.
Советую попробовать такие модифицированные версии для Android — это может вдохновит на новые приключения
Triangle Billiards & Bar Stools
1471 Nisson Ꮢd, Tustin,
ⅭA 92780, United Stateѕ
+17147715380
Tri Billiards Repair Tools
This is my first time go to see at here and i am in fact impressed to read all at one place.